Irish Unification Plebiscite Must Not Transform Into 'A Repeat of Brexit', Experts Warn

Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that divided the country and unleashed turmoil, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is equipped.

That represents the warning from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Establishments Unprepared

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.

"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."

New Title Intends to Stir Debate

The team have studied the political, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to stir debate on the topic with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What concerns everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.

"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."

Constitutional Provision

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a referendum.

Insufficient Informed Dialogue

Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, said McBride.

"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has taken place in academia but hardly any elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the publication, no writer endorses unification or the existing arrangement. They composes two pieces that aim for objectivity in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and social figures, previous instances and constitutional models.

Arguments encompass flags and symbols, taxes, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and stimulate conversation.

"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the notion that there could be good arguments on both sides."

Dual Referendums

A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they favour unity but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.

"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.

Possibility of Public Vote

McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless official who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate points, he said. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will in the end be defeated but both parties has possesses something to gain from the opposing positions."

Call for More Extensive Debate

Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, said O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."